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14.11.2017 13:03
© IEA
The resurgence in oil and gas production from the United States, deep declines in the cost of renewables and growing electrification are changing the face of the global energy system and upending traditional ways of meeting energy demand, according to the World Energy Outlook 2017 (WEO-2017). A cleaner and more diversified energy mix in China is another major driver of this transformation.
Over the next 25 years, the world’s growing energy needs are met first by renewables and natural gas, as fast-declining costs turn solar power into the cheapest source of new electricity generation. Global energy demand is 30% higher by 2040 – but still half as much as it would have been without efficiency improvements. The boom years for coal are over and rising oil demand slows down but is not reversed before 2040 even as electric-car sales rise steeply.
WEO-2017 finds that over the next two decades the global energy system is being reshaped by four major forces: the United States is set to become the undisputed global oil and gas leader; renewables are being deployed rapidly thanks to falling costs; the share of electricity in the energy mix is growing; and China’s new economic strategy takes it on a cleaner growth mode, with implications for global energy markets.
Solar PV is set to lead capacity additions, pushed by deployment in China and India, meanwhile in the European Union, wind becomes the leading source of electricity soon after 2030.
“Electric vehicles (EVs) are in the fast lane as a result of government support and declining battery costs but it is far too early to write the obituary of oil, as growth for trucks, aviation, petrochemicals and shipping keep pushing demand higher. The US becomes the undisputed leader for oil and gas production for decades, which represents a major upheaval for international market dynamics”, said Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director.
This year, WEO-2017 includes a special focus on China, where economic and energy policy changes underway will have a profound impact on the country’s energy mix, and continue to shape global trends. A new phase in the country’s development results in an economy that is less reliant on heavy industry and coal.
Meanwhile, China’s long-awaited nationwide carbon trading market has completed preparation work and is waiting for the green light from authorities, Reuters reported, citing China’s top climate official Xie Zhenhua. “The market will be pushed out once it has received approval,” said Xie.
By the end of September, an accumulated total of 197 million tonnes of carbon dioxide has been traded in the pilot cities with a total value of $677.45 million. However, government officials and researchers have warned that the scheme is still facing problems and needs further improvements due to unreliable data and other regulatory problems.
“It is very likely for China to cap carbon emissions by around 2030,” said Xie, adding that China has identified 87 pilot cities across the country to explore ways to cut emissions.
WEO-2017 also shows that while carbon emissions have flattened in recent years, global energy-related CO2 emissions increase slightly by 2040. Still, this is far from enough to avoid severe impacts of climate change.
This year, the report introduces the Sustainable Development Scenario, which offers an integrated way to achieve a range of goals: climate stabilization, cleaner air and universal access to modern energy.
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